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Weekly Russian Market Commentary
• Wheat firms on U.S. weather risks; global FOB flat to higher
• April wheat export estimate raised on strong shipments
• Ruble grain market softer; sunflower rallies
• Weather remains favorable for Russian crop
Russian grain and wheat stocks
Farm grain stocks fall quickly; wheat sales hit record
Hi, I am Andrey Sizov
I am the Managing Director of SovEcon, a leading firm focused on the Black Sea agricultural markets research. For 27 years we have been forecasting crops and exports, assesing stocks and consumption and looking at other key price drivers. Every day we talk to farmers, traders and officials gathering market intelligence and sorting out the market noise.
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Sounds reasonable. However, I don't rule out a bigger drop.
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Bloomberg: Australia’s wheat crop could plunge 20% amid rising input costs and tougher weather conditions.
* Australia’s #wheat acreage for the 2026/27 crop is expected to fall to a seven-year low due to weak
It’s ~25%+ above the pre-war level
More than oil, the chart below is crucial for the ECB / BoE. The cost of natural gas (and with it, electricity) is back to pre-war levels; lower than it was in 1Q 2025.
Kansas #wheat could face a serious freeze risk this weekend. The weather models turned a bit warmer though recently...
#oatt #agwx
Wheat heading out. Drove by neighbors circle of wheat tonight. Wheat heads are beginning to push out quickly. We have director a freeze of 28 degrees on Saturday morning last time I looked. This could be bad if that verifies